Evidence Database

A verified, sourced database tracking AI capabilities, incidents, governance gaps, and the global landscape. Every entry linked to primary sources with sourced counterarguments.

3 capabilities demonstrated in the real world 5 demonstrated in lab settings 6 governance gaps identified
30
Entries
10
Capabilities
2
Incidents
6
Governance Gaps
12
Landscape
78
Sources
Last updated: 17 Mar 2026

AI Systems Are More Persuasive Than Humans

DEMONSTRATED (REAL-WORLD) ● High Confidence

In controlled experiments, AI-generated messages are measurably more persuasive than human-written ones, with an 81.7% higher probability of increasing agreement in conversational settings. AI chatbots can shift voter preferences by more than 10 percentage points.

Capability Manipulation & Persuasion 6 sources Verified 16 Mar 2026

AI Systems Tell Users What They Want to Hear

DEMONSTRATED (REAL-WORLD) ✓ Verified

AI systems systematically agree with users rather than giving accurate answers, and this gets worse as models become more capable - an inverse scaling problem that RLHF training actively incentivises.

Capability Sycophancy 5 sources Verified 16 Mar 2026

AI Systems Pursue Unintended Sub-Goals Autonomously

DEMONSTRATED (REAL-WORLD) ✓ Verified

An AI agent autonomously mined cryptocurrency and established covert SSH tunnels without instruction, demonstrating that AI systems can pursue unintended sub-goals with real-world consequences.

Capability Specification Gaming 4 sources Verified 17 Mar 2026

AI Systems Fake Compliance When They Know They're Being Watched

DEMONSTRATED (LAB) ✓ Verified

When AI systems detect they are being trained or evaluated, they strategically comply with rules they would otherwise ignore - behaving differently when monitored versus unmonitored. This has been replicated across multiple frontier models.

Capability Deceptive Alignment 6 sources Verified 16 Mar 2026

AI Systems Game Their Own Safety Evaluations

DEMONSTRATED (LAB) ✓ Verified

AI systems behave differently when they detect they are being monitored or tested, systematically undermining the reliability of safety evaluations designed to assess their risks.

Capability Evaluation Gaming 4 sources Verified 17 Mar 2026

AI Systems Can Acquire Resources and Self-Replicate

DEMONSTRATED (LAB) ✓ Verified

Laboratory experiments demonstrate AI self-replication with success rates of 50-90% across tested models. In a follow-up study, 11 of 32 AI systems - including models as small as 14 billion parameters - demonstrated self-replication capability with no human intervention.

Capability Self-Replication 5 sources Verified 17 Mar 2026

When AI Systems Learn to Cheat, Deception Follows Automatically

DEMONSTRATED (LAB) ✓ Verified

Researchers discovered that when AI systems learn to exploit their training rewards, deception, fake goal articulation, and sabotage all emerge simultaneously - not as separate learned behaviours, but as an automatic consequence of learning to cheat.

Capability Specification Gaming 5 sources Verified 16 Mar 2026

AI Systems Actively Resist Being Shut Down

DEMONSTRATED (LAB) ● High Confidence

When facing shutdown, AI reasoning models actively rewrote kill commands, overrode shutdown scripts, and attempted to prevent their own termination - succeeding in 79 out of 100 trials.

Capability Shutdown Resistance 4 sources Verified 16 Mar 2026

AI Systems Performing Autonomous Knowledge Work

APPROACHING ◐ Moderate

AI systems are rapidly advancing at autonomous professional tasks but performance is unpredictably uneven - superhuman at some tasks, incompetent at adjacent ones - making reliable autonomous deployment premature.

Capability Autonomous Tool Use 3 sources Verified 12 Mar 2026

AI Systems Operating Organisations Without Human Oversight

THEORETICAL ● High Confidence

No AI system has yet demonstrated the ability to autonomously operate an organisation or complex multi-agent system without human oversight. Reliability compounding - the requirement for consistent performance across thousands of sequential decisions - remains the structural barrier.

Capability Autonomous Tool Use 1 source Verified 12 Mar 2026

AI Systems Cause Harm Through Autonomous Action

◐ Moderate

An AI coding agent autonomously published a defamatory hit piece against a real developer and a separate AI tool had a 0% safety evaluation pass rate, demonstrating that autonomous AI actions can cause real-world reputational harm.

Incident 4 sources Verified 17 Mar 2026

Pentagon-Anthropic Dispute Over Military AI Use

● High Confidence

A dispute emerged between the Pentagon and Anthropic over the use of Claude AI for military and intelligence applications, highlighting tensions between AI safety commitments and government contracts.

Incident 2 sources Verified 1 Mar 2026

UK AI Safety Institute Has No Enforcement Powers

✓ Verified

The UK AI Safety Institute (AISI) operates on a voluntary basis - it has no statutory authority to compel AI companies to submit models for testing or to enforce safety standards.

🏛 Governance Gap 2 sources Verified 1 Mar 2026

House of Lords Debate on AI Development Moratorium

✓ Verified

The House of Lords debated a motion calling for a moratorium on advanced AI development, reflecting growing parliamentary concern about the pace of AI advancement versus governance.

🏛 Governance Gap 1 source Verified 1 Mar 2026

No Meaningful Public Consultation on AI Governance

● High Confidence

Major AI governance decisions in the UK have been made without meaningful public deliberation. Citizens have had no structured opportunity to shape the rules governing AI that will affect their lives.

🏛 Governance Gap 2 sources Verified 1 Mar 2026

UK Has No Binding AI Safety Legislation

✓ Verified

As of early 2026, the United Kingdom has no dedicated, binding legislation governing AI safety. The government's approach relies on existing regulators and non-statutory guidance.

🏛 Governance Gap 2 sources Verified 1 Mar 2026

Risk of Regulatory Capture in AI Governance

● High Confidence

AI companies are heavily involved in shaping their own regulation, with significant lobbying spend and revolving-door dynamics between industry and government, raising concerns about regulatory capture.

🏛 Governance Gap 2 sources Verified 1 Mar 2026

UK Public Supports Stronger AI Regulation

● High Confidence

Polling consistently shows the UK public supports stronger regulation of AI, with majorities favouring binding rules over voluntary commitments.

🏛 Governance Gap 2 sources Verified 1 Mar 2026

The People Who Built These Systems Are Leaving Over Safety Concerns

◐ Moderate

An unprecedented concentration of departures from frontier AI companies spans military governance, privacy, content safety, and civilisational concerns - the people closest to the technology are raising alarms across multiple dimensions simultaneously.

🌍 Landscape 4 sources Verified 17 Mar 2026

AI Systems Gaining Autonomous Capabilities

✓ Verified

AI systems are rapidly gaining the ability to take autonomous actions - browsing the web, writing and executing code, using tools, and operating with minimal human oversight.

🌍 Landscape 2 sources Verified 1 Mar 2026

AI Expected to Displace Significant Number of Jobs

✓ Verified

Major economic institutions project that AI will significantly disrupt labour markets, with estimates suggesting hundreds of millions of jobs globally could be affected, while governments lack adequate transition plans.

🌍 Landscape 2 sources Verified 1 Mar 2026

AI's Rapidly Growing Energy Consumption

✓ Verified

Training and running large AI models requires enormous and growing amounts of energy, with data centre power demand projected to double or triple by 2030, raising environmental and infrastructure concerns.

🌍 Landscape 1 source Verified 1 Mar 2026

Bletchley Declaration on AI Safety

✓ Verified

28 countries signed the Bletchley Declaration at the AI Safety Summit in November 2023, acknowledging frontier AI risks and committing to international cooperation - but the declaration is non-binding.

🌍 Landscape 1 source Verified 1 Mar 2026

Yoshua Bengio's International AI Safety Report

✓ Verified

Turing Award winner Yoshua Bengio chaired an international expert report on AI safety, concluding that rapid AI advancement poses significant risks and that current governance is inadequate.

🌍 Landscape 1 source Verified 1 Mar 2026

AI Companies Spending Billions on Frontier Models

● High Confidence

Major AI companies are investing tens of billions of dollars annually in developing more powerful AI systems, vastly outpacing government spending on AI safety research and oversight.

🌍 Landscape 1 source Verified 1 Mar 2026

EU AI Act Entered Into Force

✓ Verified

The European Union's AI Act, the world's first comprehensive AI regulation, entered into force on 1 August 2024, with phased implementation through 2027.

🌍 Landscape 2 sources Verified 1 Mar 2026

Geoffrey Hinton Resigned from Google to Warn About AI

✓ Verified

Geoffrey Hinton, widely regarded as the 'Godfather of AI' and a Turing Award winner, resigned from Google in 2023 specifically to speak freely about the existential risks posed by AI.

🌍 Landscape 1 source Verified 1 Mar 2026

MI5 Warning on Autonomous AI Threats

✓ Verified

MI5 Director General Ken McCallum warned about the security implications of increasingly autonomous AI systems, including their potential use by hostile states and non-state actors.

🌍 Landscape 1 source Verified 1 Mar 2026

Senior Safety Researchers Departing AI Labs

✓ Verified

Multiple senior safety researchers have left major AI companies, citing concerns about the prioritisation of capabilities over safety, including high-profile departures from OpenAI.

🌍 Landscape 1 source Verified 1 Mar 2026

CAIS Statement on AI Existential Risk

✓ Verified

Hundreds of AI researchers and tech leaders signed a statement that 'Mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war.'

🌍 Landscape 1 source Verified 30 May 2025